When a hitter is performing well or struggling, the first question I ask myself is, “Why and how?” Then I ask, “What’s going on under the hood?” It’s easy to get lost in the weeds with all the advanced metrics available, but the goal is to make this information digestible. Have these hitters been fortunate or unfortunate? Or have any skills changed within their profile? Will these hitters continue finding success? Or will they bounce back from their struggles?
Reach out on X (@corbin_young21) if you’re interested in me diving into specific hitters.
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CJ Abrams, Nationals (98% Rostered)
After nearly averaging 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over the past two seasons, CJ Abrams could surpass that in 2026. Abrams has been fortunate, with a career-high BABIP (.336), supporting a career-best batting average. Interestingly, Abrams’ contact rate was a career low (72.6%), making us wonder whether his 10% walk rate can be sustained with similar chase and swing rates in 2026 compared to the career averages. For context, Abrams had a 77.9% contact rate and 35% chase rate throughout his career.
Speaking of luck, Abrams’ home run rate (HR/F) reached a career-high at 16.9% in 2026, mainly supported by his 6.8% barrel rate per plate appearance. Besides the increased barrel rate, Abrams has shown consistent bat speed, pull rates and flyball rates, evidenced by a 21-22% pulled air rate over the past few seasons. Like the rest of Abrams’ profile, his barrel rate was a career high, two percentage points above his career average (4.8%).