NBA fans are all getting the series we were all hoping for: A Western Conference Finals collision between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs.
These teams are the budding preeminent rivalry of the NBA and already played five times in the regular season — one extra game because of an NBA Cup semifinal — and are set for at least another four.
In this article I will break down the WCF from a betting perspective, giving my most actionable bets to place in the series and for Game 1.
Exact series score: Thunder to win 3-1 (+325)
When modeling the matchup, my model prices Oklahoma City as a -268 favorite for the series. Throughout the betting market, the series line opened between -260 and -270. This was a positive sign I was right on the market, but it also means I didn’t find much value betting any direction for the outright series.
Once I establish this 72.8% chance that OKC wins, I then break down and price Thunder 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3. From there I can compare the percent chance of each outcome to the exacta markets and combine outcomes to price series spreads. The bet with the most value was Thunder to win 3-1 at +325. I show fair odds here as +320, generating a 1.2% edge. Combined with the strong market steam towards OKC in Game 1, if the market is right and OKC takes the first game, this gets a strong value bump.
The other series bet I showed slight value on was Thunder series spread -1.5 (-110), but the exacta market provided a higher expected ROI.
I will answer this question in advance: no, I would not hedge this if it got close to winning.
Game 1 player props
Jalen Williams over 19.5 Points + Assists (+100)
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JDub is healthy! Despite getting hurt in Game 2 of the Round 1 series against the Phoenix Suns, Jalen Williams said on his own YouTube channel that he is healthy and ready to play vs. San Antonio. In fact, the prolonged absence could be viewed as precautionary. When Williams got hurt, he kept himself in the game and signaled to the bench he was okay, running up and down the court a few times, before ultimately coming out and not returning until this upcoming game.
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I expect him to start and play a completely normal minutes distribution and rotation. This season he averaged 22.6 points + assists, and 21.8 in the matchups against San Antonio. With Stephon Castle likely face guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, I expect Williams to be leaned on as a playmaker for his team.
Keldon Johnson under 3.5 rebounds (+105)
Johnson was this year's Sixth Man of the Year Award winner and obviously played a pivotal role all season for his team, but in the playoffs with a completely healthy Spurs roster, Johnson's role has decreased. Johnson was playing 23.3 minutes during the regular season, but that’s down to 18.5 in the playoffs. The Thunder also scheme against allowing rebounds to opposing wing players with quick switches, actually allowing 3-point shots, and making sure to box out long rebound opportunities. Dort, Williams, and Gilgeous-Alexander are all top lengthy perimeter players who do well helping on the defensive glass. Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault prioritizes winning the possessions battle, which starts by cleaning the defensive glass.
Game 1 best bet: Thunder -6.5
Right now, the current consensus odds are Thunder -6.5. My number shows Thunder -6.7, with a slight upgrade with Jalen Williams active to Thunder -7.2. I am looking for a Thunder bet here. However, with Oklahoma City sentiment already flooding the betting market and this consensus forming, I do think that if the number were to move, there is a higher chance it gets kicked back toward San Antonio as Spurs backers place their bets. I suggest betting Thunder -6.5 if that is the number at tip-off, but there is flexibility with timing here as waiting until right before tip-off may afford you a slightly better entry price on OKC.
A small disclaimer as well: I am fully aware the Spurs won four out of five regular-season matchups but it’s not something I personally care too much about. All of the games occurred between Dec. 13th and Feb. 4, which is a short window and months ago. The regular season is almost a different sport. The Thunder are completely healthy, have home court advantage, a coaching and experience advantage, a shooting advantage, and three reliable big men to give Wembanyama various looks and keep him uncomfortable.
I think the Spurs are in for trouble, and the most likely scenario is Thunder in five.
