Why the UConn women's basketball team won't win the NCAA Tournament

Why the UConn women's basketball team won't win the NCAA Tournament

Coach Geno Auriemma's UConn Huskies have 12 national championships, more than any other program in women's college basketball by a wide margin.

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Entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the Huskies are undefeated, the overall No. 1 seed and the overwhelming betting favorite to run it back as champions of the sport.

But being the top seed doesn't guarantee that UConn will win another title. In fact, since 2017, the No. 1 overall seed has won the NCAA Tournament three times: Baylor in 2019, and South Carolina in 2022 and 2024.

Can UConn be beaten in March Madness? Can the lethal combination of Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd be stopped?

Let's take a closer look to find out how the Huskies might be dethroned.

<p style=UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) named Big East Player Of The Year as they celebrate their Big East Championship win over the Villanova Wildcats at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 9, 2026.

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) defends against Villanova Wildcats guard Kelsey Joens (23) in the first half at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 9, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) and teammates warm up before the start of the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 9, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) defends against Creighton Bluejays forward Grace Boffeli (42) in the first half at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 8, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) is introduced before the start of the game against the Creighton Bluejays at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 8, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) warms up before the start of the game against the Creighton Bluejays at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 8, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) works for the ball against Georgetown Hoyas forward Brianna Byars (32) in the second half at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 7, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) awarded player of the year and Big East first team player before the start of the game against the Georgetown Hoyas at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 7, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) returns the ball against Georgetown Hoyas forward Brianna Scott (15) in the first half at PeoplesBank Arena on Feb 26, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) and teammates react after a basket against the Providence Friars in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Feb 22, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) moves the ball against Creighton Bluejays guard Kendall McGee (1) in the first half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Feb 11, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) drives the ball against Creighton Bluejays center Elizabeth Gentry (35) in the first half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Feb 11, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) drives to the basket against DePaul Blue Demons guard Kate Novik (33) during the first half at Wintrust Arena on Feb 4, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) drive to the basket against Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward Malaya Cowles (5) in the first half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Jan. 19, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) and Villanova Wildcats forward Kylee Watson (4) works for the ball in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Jan. 15, 2026. UConn Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) works for the rebound against Florida State Seminoles forward Avery Treadwell (32) in the first half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Nov. 9, 2025. Connecticut Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) reacts while interviewed by ESPN reporter Holly Rowe after the national championship of the women's 2025 NCAA tournament against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Amalie Arena on April 6, 2025. Connecticut Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) cuts off a piece of the net after the national championship of the women's 2025 NCAA tournament against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Amalie Arena on April 6, 2025. Connecticut Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) and South Carolina Gamecocks forward Joyce Edwards (8) battle for the ball during the first half of the national championship of the women's 2025 NCAA tournament at Amalie Arena on April 6, 2025. Connecticut Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) and guard Paige Bueckers (5) react on the bench during the fourth quarter in a semifinal of the women's 2025 NCAA tournament against the UCLA Bruins at Amalie Arena on April 4, 2025. Connecticut Huskies forward Sarah Strong (21) talks with ESPN reporter Holly Rowe after defeating the UCLA Bruins during the fourth quarter in a semifinal of the women's 2025 NCAA tournament at Amalie Arena on April 4, 2025. The UConn Huskies bench reacts after forward Sarah Strong (21) makes a three point basket against the Boston University Terriers in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion on Nov. 7, 2024.

Sarah Strong, UConn look for perfection and another championship

UConn Huskies forwardSarah Strong(21) named Big East Player Of The Year as they celebrate their Big East Championship win over the Villanova Wildcats at Mohegan Sun Arena on Mar 9, 2026.

Rebounding

This is something Auriemma has harped on all year. Despite having arguably the best player in the country in the frontcourt, the Huskies aren't an elite rebounding team.

Out of 363 Division I teams, UConn ranks 139th in total rebounds per game (37.4), 96th in defensive rebounding rate (71.9%) and a mediocre 204th in offensive rebounds per game (11.3). Now the argument against the last stat there is that UConn doesn't miss all that much — it leads the nation in field goal percentage — so the Huskies don't get the opportunity to grab their own misses as much as other teams.

But rebounding has been something that has concerned Auriemma.

"You don't need any talent to be an offensive rebounder," Auriemma said after UConn's win over Creighton on Feb. 11. "All you need is when the ball leaves somebody's hand, you automatically are putting yourself in a position to chase it… The ones that don't go in, I want to get better at getting some of those back."

Since 2010, all but four national champions have ranked in the top 30 in the country in rebounds per game the year that they won the title. Two of those outliers were Auriemma's teams that won championships in 2016 and 2025.

3-point defense

On the surface, UConn's 3-point defense is pretty strong. The Huskies allow opponents to shoot 27.4% from behind the arc, which ranks 22nd nationally.

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However, UConn ranks dead last in the nation in percentage of points allowed from 3-point land at 38.9% and opponent 3-point rate at 40.3%. UConn has allowed its opponents to make 222 3-pointers this season, which ranks 308th nationally.

The Huskies have given up double-digit 3-pointers in a single game five times this season. It's worth noting that two of those games — on a neutral court against Michigan and at Villanova — were the closest games UConn came to losing this season. The Huskies beat the Wolverines by just three points and Villanova led UConn at halftime.

The blueprint

Villanova might have revealed a blueprint to beating UConn when the Wildcats hosted the Huskies on Feb. 18. But a lot of it, if we're being honest, is based on luck and UConn creating its own problems.

First, UConn got off to a sluggish start in that game, turning the ball over eight times in the first quarter. Second, Strong got into foul trouble, picking up her third in the second quarter and fourth early in the third quarter. Third, Villanova got hot from 3-point land, making 11 shots from behind the arc. And fourth, the Wildcats nearly matched the Huskies on the glass, losing the rebounding margin by just two.

So, how did the Wildcats blow a five-point lead and go on to lose by 14 points? Well, they turned the ball over 26 times and let UConn flip those cough-ups into 28 points. Strong finished with a superb foul-free fourth quarter too, with 11 points, three boards and an assist.

The close-call with Michigan was similar. UConn didn't start slow and Strong didn't endure foul trouble, but the Wolverines made 12 3-pointers and kept it close with UConn on the glass. The errors for Michigan were turning the ball over 14 times and allowing the Huskies to score 18 fast break points. A few less turnovers for the Wolverines and maybe that result is different.

So, what's the blueprint for beating UConn? Make 3-pointers, attack the glass and keep the Huskies off it, and don't turn the ball over.

And pray the Huskies start slow and Fudd or Strong fall into early foul trouble.

Easier said than done, right? But Villanova and Michigan nearly pulled this off to varying degrees.

There's many teams in the NCAA Tournament better than Villanova and a handful stronger than Michigan. And this is March, where madness is not uncommon.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Why UConn won't win back-to-back Women's NCAA Tournaments

 

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