Few NFL seasons have produced as many worthy Coach of the Year candidates as this one. Since the turn of the decade, the award has become a de facto "which coach had the biggest turnaround or surprised us the most this season?"
Whether that's right or wrong is a matter of opinion. But it does leave uswith the New England Patriots' Mike Vrabelclosing at -285 according to MetMGM, with Mike Macdonald of theSeattle Seahawks(+300), theChicago Bears' Ben Johnson (+1800) and theJacksonville Jaguars' Liam Coen (+1800) behind him, as the favorite for the award. Beyond those coaches, Sean Payton of theDenver Broncosand even the San Francisco 49ers' Kyle Shanahan have claims. Which is exactly our purpose here – laying out the cases for and against the contenders, no matter how fringe and unlikely they may be.
Coach of the Year winners – this isn't a blanket rule but is largely applicable – fall under four categories. Let's call them 1.) long-term dominance (examples: therecently fired John Harbaugh'swin in 2019 with the Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick in 2010); 2.) newfound dominance (Vrabel in 2021 with the Tennessee Titans a recent example, Macdonald's candidacy this season); 3.) impressive turnaround (increasingly the most-common narrative surrounding the award – think Brian Daboll in 2022 with the New York Giants; and 4.) admirable effort despite the circumstances (Bruce Arians with the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 when he took over for the cancer-stricken Chuck Pagano).
All of the following arguments (made in no particular order) will also feature which bucket the respective candidacy falls into.
Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
Case for:Led a turnaround in two years. The defense that he coordinates despite being the head coach tangibly makes the entire team better. Every late RedZone window had a Seahawks defender prancing into the end zone, it felt like. 10th in DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) in year 1 after taking over a brutal unit and first in year 2. He did the same with the Ravens. He moved on from Ryan Grubb as his offensive coordinator after the first season and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, whose work with that unitwill garner him head-coaching interviewsin the coming weeks. He didn't play for the tie in the crazy "Thursday Night Football" overtime victory over theLos Angeles Rams.
Case against:Struggling to come up with reasons.
Category:Newfound dominance
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Pete Carrollwas fired as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders on Jan. 5, 2026, after one season. Take a look back at other one and done NFL head coaches from the 1970s to today.
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots (14-3)
Case for:Took over a team that won four games in each of its previous two seasons, doubled that, and then almost doubled that again. His hire of Josh McDaniels to coordinate the offense looks genius. He's had to navigate his defensive coordinator, Terrell Williams, being diagnosed with cancer midseason. The way second-year quarterbackDrake Maye developed into not just a MVP candidate, but a leader, is a reflection of the head coach.
Case against:The Patriots' schedule was historically easy.
Category:Turnaround
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
Case for:Coen became the seventh coach in NFL history to win 13 games in his first season. More importantly, franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrenceis playing the best ball of his careerentering the playoffs. His No. 2 overall pick, Travis Hunter, was a non-factor for much of the season. Just like he did with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Coen squeezed the most out of an underrated offensive line. He seamlessly incorporated Jakobi Meyers,the trade-deadline move of the year, into the offense.
Case against:His team led the league in penalties halfway through the season and has been the benefactor of turnover luck all season long.
Category:Impressive turnaround
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (11-6)
Case for:Taking a seemingly-cursed franchise to a division title in Year 1 has to be worth something. He believed in a vision of rebuilding his offensive line with veteran additions and it worked. His progression plan for Caleb Williams has the 2024 No. 1 pick looking like a future superstar at times. Johnson remains arguably the most dangerous offensive play-caller in the league.
Case against:The Bears started 6-1 in one-score games before dropping a pair before finishing 1-3 in those games. Not that it mattered much, as the Bears have home-field advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Category:Impressive turnaround
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Case for:His team was one bad prime-time performance away from having a bye next week. Given the abundance of injuries on both sides of the ball, the coaching job must be commended.
Case against:His team employs Christian McCaffrey at running back yet couldn't figure out a way to efficiently run the ball all season. Sure, they deployed the "throw to run" tactic but it proved unsustainable against an elite defense like the Seahawks'.
Category:Long-term dominance
Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Case for:The obvious reason is that he coaches a Super Bowl contender, regardless of whether they won their division. The man is still an offensive genius and ushered in the next craze of a dynamic passing attack out of "heavy" ("13," whatever one may call it) personnel. His quarterback, Matthew Stafford, appears to be on the verge of winning his first MVP.
Case against:The Rams lost at least three games (being generous) that were easily winnable. A reason in most of them was McVay's inability to keep leaning on the rushing attack with leads.
Category:Long-term dominance
Sean Payton, Denver Broncos (14-3)
Case for:The coach of a conference's top seed will almost always have a case by virtue of the team's success. Second-year quarterback Bo Nix has been impressive during high-leverage moments, which reflects well upon Payton. He's built a rushing attack with what feels like a never-ending rotation of backs. Giving Vance Joseph the keys to the defense definitely wasn't a bad idea.
Case against:He wasmean to the refsduring that one comeback win over the Giants?
Category:Newfound dominance
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:NFL Coach of the Year candidates breakdown: Who will win?
