Sixteen teams remainas the madness continues in March.
TheWomen's NCAA Tournamentlooked like it was going to be upset-free in the opening weekend, and thenNo. 10 Virginia stunned fans everywhere when it defeated No. 2 Iowaon Monday afternoon in double overtime in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Another ACC team, No. 6 Notre Dame, added to the upset fun by beating No. 3 Ohio State to advance to its fifth consecutive Sweet 16 under coach Niele Ivey. And Kenny Brooks' No. 5 Kentucky narrowly defeated No. 4 West Virginia to continue dancing.
Otherwise, most of the tournament was pretty chalky in the opening rounds. No mid-major teams remain, and No. 1 UConn is the only team from a non-Power 4 league still playing.
While the women's tournament can lack some of that upset flavor that the men's tournament has in the opening weekend, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight is typically where things get spicy.
Let's dive in and fire off some hot takes.
Kamy Peppler #1 of the Green Bay Phoenix reacts against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the third quarter during the First Round of the Women's NCAA Tournament at Williams Arena on March 20, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Golden Gophers defeated the Phoenix 75-58." style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> 
March Sadness hits hard in the Women's NCAA basketball tournament
Kamy Peppler #1 of the Green Bay Phoenix reacts against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the third quarter during the First Round of theWomen's NCAA Tournamentat Williams Arena on March 20, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Golden Gophers defeated the Phoenix 75-58.
Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt will be the most-watched game of the Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 will feature a few really big women's basketball brands matching up. North Carolina vs. UConn is sure to draw eyeballs, as will Duke vs. LSU, Texas vs. Kentucky and South Carolina vs. Oklahoma.
But no game in the Sweet 16 has the battle in the backcourt that we're going to see in Vanderbilt vs. Notre Dame, where a pair of New Jersey natives — Hannah Hidalgo and Mikayla Blakes — will likely be going shot for shot. These are two of the most electrifying players in the sport, both capable of scoring in boatloads and of single-handedly carrying their teams to victory. Both Blakes and Hidalgo were unanimously votedUSA TODAY Sports first-team All-Americans.
Vanderbilt's Blakes leads the nation in scoring while Hidalgo is third. And the Notre Dame junior leads the nation in steals while Blakes is fourth in free throws made.
If the top half of this regional goes chalk, the winner will play UConn.
Duke gets revenge on LSU
You might remember the Tigers marched into Cameron Indoor Stadium back in December and walloped Duke 93-77. Can LSU do it to the Blue Devils again when they meet in the Sweet 16? Perhaps.
But let's consider Duke was at its worst when the Tigers came to Durham. The very next game, the Blue Devils began a 17-game winning streak when coach Kara Lawson tweaked their starting lineup — promoting Riley Nelson off the bench — and then went on to win the ACC's regular season and tournament titles.
Lawson also has a pretty good pedigree in run-it-back games, where Duke gets a second crack at a team in a single season after losing to them earlier the year. Just look at last season:
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Duke lost its first meeting with North Carolina, then beat the Tar Heels in their second and third matchups.
Duke lost at NC State in the regular season, then topped the Wolfpack in the ACC title game.
South Carolina beat the Blue Devils comfortably in their first meeting last season, and their Elite Eight meeting came down to the final two possessions.
And then there's this season, where Duke lost to Baylor in its season-opener in Paris by six points, then demolished the Bears in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament, 69-46, on Sunday. Duke also defeated Louisville and Notre Dame — two other Sweet 16 teams – twice each this season.
Duke will be better prepared and more motivated in this matchup with the Tigers.
Kentucky makes the Final Four
Kenny Brooks and the Wildcats jumped over one hurdle, beating No. 4 West Virginia on its home floor in Morgantown in front of a sold-out crowd. Now, Kentucky will face a Texas team it lost to in the regular season in Fort Worth.
The Wildcats lost by 11 points to the Longhorns in Austin, Texas, earlier this season, but it was just Teonni Key's third game back from an elbow injury, Tonie Morgan had an uncharacteristic game with six turnovers and Amelia Hassett and Jordan Obi combined for three points. The chances of all those things happening again seems unlikely. And Key and Clara Strack are coming off a game against WVU where they both had dominant double-double performances.
Finally, Kentucky will likely have to get past either Michigan or Louisville in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats beat the Cardinals by double figures in Louisville earlier this season and have a noticeable size advantage over the Wolverines whose two tallest players are 6-foot-3. Kentucky has three starters above 6-foot-4.
If Kentucky gets a little bit of bracket luck, the idea of the Wildcats making it to Phoenix isn't so crazy.
Virginia will pull off another upset
A double-digit seed has not made the Elite Eight of the Women's NCAA Tournament since 2022, when Creighton advanced after beating Colorado, Iowa and Iowa State. Virginia has already made its fair share of history in this tournament, so what's one more bullet point on the resume?
By beating Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Sunday, the Cavaliers advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2000 when they were coached by Hall of Famer Debbie Ryan. What's more, Virginia became the first team to play in the First Four and advance all the way to the Sweet 16 since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2022.
So far, the Cavaliers have defeated Arizona State, Georgia and Iowa, winning each game by single digits and notching two of those victories in overtime. Can the cardiac Cavaliers pull off another upset? With Kymora Johnson leading the way — she's averaging 24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game in the NCAA tournament — the 'Hoos have a chance.
Amaka Agugua-Hamilton's squad will now face a TCU team that flirted with disaster in the second round, narrowly defeating Washington in overtime. It's worth noting too that the Horned Frogs' top two players — Olivia Miles and Marta Suarez, formerly of Notre Dame and Cal — played in the ACC last season.
Suarez's Cal team beat Virginia twice last year, but she didn't play all that well, shooting a combined 10-of-26 from the floor and turning the ball over eight times. Miles, on the other hand, had a triple-double against the Cavaliers the last time she faced them.
Still, Virginia has nothing to lose. They aren't supposed to be here. All the pressure will be on TCU.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Women's NCAA Tournament bracket hot takes for Sweet 16 and Elite 8