Braden Smith has shot at NCAA assists record. He wants something bigger

For more than 15 years, Matt Painter assembledPurdueteams where players of all shapes and sizes could win.

USA TODAY Sports Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates a referee call during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Mackey Arena.

From the exceptionally tall Zach Edey to the mighty-mouse scoring sparkplug Carsen Edwards. From a bulldozer like Caleb Swanigan to lithe and agile Jaden Ivey.

Painter's Boilermakers have had it all — except an elite point guard.

Postseason awards:Check out All-Big Ten teams, 2026 Player, Coach of the Year

Turns out, all he had to do was look about 50 miles southeast to find the one to change it all.

Westfield, Indiana'sBraden Smithhas gone from under-the-radar three-star recruit with offers from Montana and Appalachian State to Purdue's transcendent floor general. The All-American and 2025 Big Ten Player of the Year, Smith is in his final weeks with the Boilermakers. As the end approaches, he's far from done.

NCAA history is in sight. So is that elusive national championship. Why not go for both?

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) reacts to scoring during a foul during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Mackey Arena.

Smith enters March within striking distance of Bobby Hurley's Division I assists record. To get there, he will need a few extra games. And that might mean guiding Purdue down a short drive south on I-65 to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

"We've had good point guards," Painter told USA TODAY Sports. "But we haven't had that elite player at that position like him."

There wasn't much time for the 2022 Indiana Mr. Basketball to settle, thrust into the starting lineup out of the gate. It helped having Edey as the star, able to dish it to the 7-5 behemoth to dominate games.

It molded Smith as a premier passer, with assistant coach and former Purdue guard P.J. Thompson serving as a mentor. In his sophomore season, Smith's 7.5 assists per game were the second-most in the country for the eventual national runner-up.

But with Edey gone, Purdue needed more from Smith his junior year. He didn't really prioritize scoring, but he would have to, all while continuing to be one of the best passers in the game.

He stepped it up. Last season, he averaged 15.8 points with 8.7 assists per game, leading to a crowded trophy case.

"You add something to your game every year. You add more maturity to your game, more polish to your game," Painter said. "We needed him to score, we needed him each year to grow. Every year, he got better."

This season, Smith is Purdue's leading scorer at 14.9 points per game while averaging 8.7 assists a game, second-most in the nation. It's been a remarkable offensive season for Purdue, on pace to be one of Painter's best-scoring team of his tenure.

Smith can dissect things in multiple ways. Painter described his approach as "take what the game presents." If teams are taking away passing lanes, then go score. If they are defending hard, make those passes for easy buckets.

"Just instinctively play the game. That's when he's at his best," Painter said.

There will be nights where he scores 29 points, like he did against Alabama, or others when he's reaching double-digit assists. When he's getting double-doubles (he has eight this season), the Boilermakers are 6-2.

"I'm going to continue to shoot," Smith said. "You still got to produce and do what you're going to do."

Braden Smith nearing Bobby Hurley's NCAA assist record

With 141 career games played, Smith is on the cusp of NCAA history, recently becoming the fifth men's player to reach 1,000 career assists. At 1,029 total dimes, he is just 47 away from Hurley's all-time record of 1,076 assists set in 1990-93.

Fans in black and gold have been following that chase all season, knowing there's a realistic chance it could be broken. There's even a website,bradenassists.com, dedicated to tracking it.

Bobby Hurley holds the Division I record of 1,076 career assists set in 1990-93.

Now in his 11th season coaching Arizona State, Hurley was made aware of the possibility before the year. He doesn't get to follow Smith heavily, but Hurley's appreciated what he's seen of him, including against his brother, Dan, and UConn in the 2024 title game.

"I've always admired how he plays and his vision and how he makes people better," Hurley told USA TODAY Sports. "Braden seems to be more of a throwback type of guard; just really unique vision and creativity with his passing and takes a lot of pride in it."

The record has stood for more than 30 years, with no real threat. North Carolina's Ed Cota (1996-2000) came closest with 1,030. Even though it hasn't really been challenged, Hurley figured "this moment would eventually happen," and "it might have happened sooner, actually."

He said he can't judge who is worthy of breaking the record, but Smith has all the traits to deserve it.

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"To have someone that would take it down, he would be the type of person that I would really respect having the record," Hurley said.

Smith knows about the record. But does he care? Well, it depends, because there's only one way it gets broken: Purdue keeps winning.

With the regular season complete, Smith and the Boilermakers are guaranteed at least two more games — one Big Ten tournament and one NCAA Tournament. Survive and advance to get 10 more games, the more chances to add assists. Hurley mentioned how playing those extra games en route to winning two national championships with Duke helped him reach his mark.

If Purdue plays the maximum 10 games left with a Big Ten final and national championship game appearance, he'll just need to average 4.7 assists per game to break the record. The fewer amount of games played, the more assists needed per contest.

Already a guy that despises being taken out of games, don't be surprised to see Smith play all 40 minutes, like he just did against Northwestern.

"The more he plays the game to win, the better chance he'll have to get the records," Painter said. "The record is going to come because you get to the championship game of the Big Ten tournament, you get to the Final Four. That's when the record is gonna play out."

Purdue needs deep March Madness run

That, of course, has been the conundrum for Purdue. Smith was a freshman on the team that became just the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. He got to the championship game as a sophomore. Last season, the Boilermakers lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 on a last-second backdoor basket.

With Smith back for one last run, Purdue entered the season as national title favorites, theNo. 1 in USA TODAY Sports preseason men's basketball poll. For much of the season, it played the part with a 17-1 start.

However, things have gotten off track. The Boilermakers are 6-7 since then, suddenly looking like ghosts of March past are creeping up again.

Smith has still been producing for his team, but he believes any and all struggles "starts with me."

"Personally, that's how I am as a competitor and a person," Smith said after Purdue lost to UCLA on Jan. 20. "I got to be better, and I got to learn from it."

It's made for frustrating times, and it only is heightened with the bumps and bruises Smith takes almost routinely in games, visibly upset with it. "I'm just so used to it at this point," he said, feeling like he gets a different treatment of physicality.

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) is recognized for all time career assists before the game against the Washington Huskies at Mackey Arena.

Painter understands it, but knows it's the result of a high usage level. The more you handle the ball — and be a difference-maker with it — teams are going to hound you. That's just the way it is.

Luckily, it gets the guard in a mindset his coach loves to see him in.

"A lot of it is that competitiveness comes out. You see him getting upset, you see him getting fiery, call it frustration," Painter said. "But to me, I know he's dialed in. He wants to win. I'd rather calm somebody down like him than try to raise somebody else."

That fire is what Purdue is going to need if Smith wants to end his decorated career on top. His name and number are bound to be displayed inside Mackey Arena permanently, but a championship banner is the top priority.

It pays to have experience in March, especially when that player has such high court IQ like Smith. That could be the difference from surviving and advancing or going home.

"I've seen some of his assists this year where he's able to look the defense off in such a creative way and someone's laying the ball in and the defense looks foolish," Hurley said. "That's what really great passers are able to do, just manipulate the defense and get the ball to someone where the defense or the casual fan watching goes, 'How did he see that?'

"Well, it's because he probably reads the game one or two seconds ahead of everybody else."

Record and title or not, Painter doesn't think this is the end of the road for Smith; he believes a bright professional future is ahead for his star guard.

"Braden is a pro. I think he'll play 10 to 12 years in the NBA. I really believe that wholeheartedly," he said.

But that's something to look forward to in mid-April.

In an era of unrestricted player movement, Smith spent all four years with the Boilermakers, developing into a premier guard. He wants to bring glory to Purdue.

"Our guys staying, really also had to do with unfinished business," Painter said. "They want to win a national championship."

The all-time assist record would just be the cherry on top.

NCAA career assists leaders

  1. Bobby Hurley, Duke (1990-93): 1,076

  2. Chris Corchiani, NC State (1988-91): 1,038

  3. Ed Cota, North Carolina (1997-2000): 1,030

  4. Braden Smith, Purdue (2023-26): 1,029

  5. Jason Brickman, Long Island (2011-2014): 1,007

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Will Braden Smith break Bobby Hurley assists record? He wants more

Braden Smith has shot at NCAA assists record. He wants something bigger

For more than 15 years, Matt Painter assembledPurdueteams where players of all shapes and sizes could win. Fro...
Big East tournament bracket, scores: Players to watch, bubble scenarios

TheBig East tournamentshould end withConnecticutandSt. John'smeeting for the third time this season.

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That's if the Huskies can avoid another misstep afterlosing toMarquettein the regular-season finaleto drop into second place in the final conference standings. That loss could cost UConn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Thanks in part to dismal seasons byCreightonand the Golden Eagles, the Big East is expected to send only three teams into this year's tournament. Sending just three into the bracket in 2024 didn't stop the league from making a statement; all three teams made the Sweet 16 and UConn won it all.

No need for March Madness:2026 Final Four has already been decided

To make another March Madness splash, the Big East first needs UConn to shake off a lousy finish to the regular season. When it comes to St. John's, the onus is still on the Red Storm to prove they can defeat elite competition after going 4-5 in Quad 1 games.

Big East tournament schedule, bracket, scores

First round

Wednesday, March 11

  • Game 1: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed, 4 p.m., Peacock

  • Game 2: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 seed, 6:30 p.m., Peacock

  • Game 3: No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 seed, 9 p.m., Peacock

Quarterfinals

Thursday, March 12

  • Game 4: No. 1 seed vs. Game 1 winner, noon, Peacock

  • Game 5: No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed, 2:30 p.m., Peacock

  • Game 6: No. 2 seed vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m., FS1

  • Game 7: No. 3 seed vs. Game 3 winner, 9:30 p.m., FS1

Friday, March 13

  • Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 5:30 p.m., Fox

  • Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 8 p.m., FS1

Championship game

Saturday, March 14

  • Game 10: Semifinal winners, 6:30 p.m., Fox

How to watch Big East tournament

  • TV: NBCSN, Fox Sports 1 and Fox

  • Streaming: Peacock and Fubo

The entire first round will air on NBCSN and simultaneously stream on Peacock. Likewise for the first two games of the quarterfinals, before the second pair of quarterfinal games shifts to Fox Sports 1 and streams on Fubo.

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Fubo will also stream the semifinals and final, which will have a traditional broadcast on FOX.

Big East tournament favorite

The favorite is stillUConndespite the late slide into second place behind the Red Storm.

St. John'stook the first meeting this season, topping the Huskies 81-72 at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 6. UConn avenged that loss with a dominant 72-40 win on Feb. 25.

The Red Storm are a difficult group to pin down because of the average mark against top-level competition. But St. John's has often looked the part of a potential Final Four team.

Overall, UConn is the Big East's most complete team and most dangerous NCAA tournament team after losing in the second round last March.

Big East tournament top players

Zuby Ejiofor, F, St. John's— Ejiofor will deserve All-America consideration for his impact as a scorer (16.0 ppg), interior presence (2 bpg) and impactful post passer (career-best 3.5 apg).

Duke Brennan, F, Villanova— Brennan is hard to stop near the basket, making 66% of his attempts, and his 4 offensive rebounds per game leads the Big East and ranks eighth nationally.

Alex Karaban, F, UConn— The Huskies' veteran forward has made 47.9% of his attempts from the field and an even 40% from deep to score in double figures (12.9 ppg) for the third year in a row.

Adam Clark, G, Seton Hall— A former Merrimack transfer, Clark is a pesky defender (2 spg) and capable distributor (4.7 apg) but has to limit his turnovers to help Seton Hall land the wins it needs to book a tournament bid.

Solomon Ball, G, UConn— Ball (13.9 ppg) hit a cold spell down the stretch of Big East play and was held below double figures in five of his past nine games. How far UConn goes this month might depend on whether he can flip the switch.

March Madness bubble storylines for Big East

The Big East has just three NCAA tournament locks inUConn,St. John'sandVillanova. The Huskies could rally back into position to secure a No. 1 seed by winning the conference tournament, depending on how things unfold with Florida in the SEC and Houston in the Big 12.

The Red Storm are currently hovering around the No. 5 line in large part. Villanova is solidly in the No. 7 range.

Seton Hallstormed out of the gate with a 10-1 mark in non-conference play but has dropped all six matchups against the Big East's top three. That's left the Pirates out of the NCAA mix and needing to win the conference tournament to punch their ticket to March Madness.

After placing five teams in last year's bracket, the odds are the Big East has just three tournament teams unless an underdog wins the conference and steals a bid, which would complicate the at-large picture.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Big East basketball tournament bracket, scores, schedule, TV channel

Big East tournament bracket, scores: Players to watch, bubble scenarios

TheBig East tournamentshould end withConnecticutandSt. John'smeeting for the third time this season. That...
Kinsky gets support from goalkeeper community after Champions League debacle, if not from his coach

There was no arm around the shoulder from his manager asTottenham goalkeeper Antonin Kinskytrudged off the field after being substituted just 17 minutes into his calamitousChampions Leaguedebut.

Associated Press Tottenham's goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky leaves the pitch after being substituted during the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 soccer match between Atletico Madrid and Tottenham in Madrid, Spain, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Jose Breton) Tottenham's goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky, center, is greeted by teammates after being substituted during the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 soccer match between Atletico Madrid and Tottenham in Madrid, Spain, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Jose Breton) Tottenham's goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky, right, is greeted by Tottenham's goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario after being substituted during the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 soccer match between Atletico Madrid and Tottenham in Madrid, Spain, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Jose Breton) Atletico Madrid's Julian Alvarez goes round Tottenham's goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky to score his side's third goal during the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 soccer match between Atletico Madrid and Tottenham in Madrid, Spain, Tuesday, March 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Jose Breton)

Spain Champions League Soccer

Instead, support for the 22-year-old Czech came from the goalkeeper community.

"No one who hasn't been a goalkeeper can understand how difficult it is to play in this position," Fiorentina's David De Gea wrote on social media after Kinsky was taken off the field after making two mistakes leading to goals early in Tottenham's 5-2 loss at Atletico Madrid in the round of 16 on Tuesday.

"Keep your head up and you will go again."

Former Manchester United and Denmark goalkeeper Peter Schmeichel said in his role as a pundit for CBS Sports that he felt "really, really sorry" for Kinsky, who miskicked twice when attempting passes out from his area — leading to goals for first Marcos Llorente and then Julian Alvarez.

Schmeichel then had strong words for Tottenham manager Igor Tudor, who didn't even acknowledge Kinsky as the young keeper walked off the field and straight down the tunnel. Tudor just continued looking straight out onto the field.

Schmeichel said Tudor should have kept Kinsky on, at least until halftime.

"That's going to have ramifications for the rest of his career," Schmeichel said. "This will be a moment that everybody in football will always remember every time they see and hear his name.

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"What he's done there, for me," he added, "he's absolutely killed his career. That's going to take something to get over that."

Former Tottenham goalkeeper Paul Robinson, working at the match for the BBC, said being withdrawn so early would be "confidence destroying" for Kinsky.

"I've never seen that on a football pitch," Robinson said, in thoughts echoed by former England goalkeeper Joe Hart — also at the game for broadcaster TNT Sports.

"My heart is absolutely broken for him," Hart said.

Tudor said he spoke to Kinsky after the match, and took him off to "preserve the guy."

"He understands everything," the Croatian coach said. "It's a big lesson, unfortunately it happened in this big game."

AP soccer:https://apnews.com/hub/soccer

Kinsky gets support from goalkeeper community after Champions League debacle, if not from his coach

There was no arm around the shoulder from his manager asTottenham goalkeeper Antonin Kinskytrudged off the field after be...
Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Thewar on Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest?

Associated Press FILE - A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohsen Ganji, File) FILE - Policemen stand on top of their car with pictures of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right and left, and his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to him, center, during a rally to support him in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - Drivers navigate a busy intersection past a sign displaying the current gas prices at a filling station in Plano, Texas, March 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File) FILE - Plumes of smoke rise as strikes hit the city during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) FILE - People gather in a rally to support Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

Iran US Analysis

A surge in oil prices points to what may be Iran's most effective weapon and the United States' biggest vulnerability in continuing the campaign:Damaging the world economy. A sharp rise in gas prices hasrattled consumersand financial markets, and international travel and shipping have been severely disrupted.

U.S. President Donald Trump appears aware of the danger. As oil jumped to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, the highest since 2022, he suggestedthe war would be "short-term."That helped reassure markets and the price eased to around $90 — even as Trump, nearly in the same breath, vowed to keep up the war and the punishment on Iran.

On the other side, Iran has to endure a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can't defend against. So far, the Islamic Republic has been able tokeep its leadershipand military cohesive and in control. The Iranian public, which already rose up against its theocracy in nationwide protests in January, stillboils in angerbut have stayed home as they try to survive the heavy bombardment. Security forces have been on the street every day to ensure no anti-government demonstrations form.

The pressure is on U.S. allies as well. Gulf Arab states, while still not combatants in the war, face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire targeting oil fields, cities and critical water works. And Israel, while boasting of inflicting heavy damage on Iran's missile program and other military targets, continues to be targeted by increasingly sophisticated Iranian missiles that send a buckshot-like bouquet of high explosives raining down on its cities. Frequent air-raid sirens have disrupted daily life, closed schools and workplaces and created a tense atmosphere across the region.

No off-ramps seen in fighting

There's no immediate end to the war in sight — nor in the rhetoric coming from both America and Iran, whose bad blood extends back decades to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.

"We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," Trump said in a speech Monday in Doral, Florida. "We go forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all."

Iranian Foreign Ministry official Kazem Gharibabadi offered a mirror image comment from Tehran, boasting that the Islamic Republic had rejected contacts about a ceasefire that he said had come from China, France, Russia and others.

"At the moment, we hold the upper hand," Gharibabadi told Iranian state television late Monday night. "Just look at the state of the global economy and energy markets — it has been very painful for them."

He asserted that it was Iran that "will determine the end of the war."

Iranian strategy remains havoc

For years before Israel and the U.S. launched the war on Feb. 28, Iran warned that, if attacked, it would retaliate on the entire Middle East, targeting the oil infrastructure that made its Gulf Arab neighbors fantastically wealthy. By contrast, Tehran's economy has been crippled by international sanctions.

Iran has now backed up its threat with barrages of missiles and drones. Qatar was forced to halt its production of natural gas, and Bahrain declared its oil operations couldn't meet their contractual obligations. Other producers like Saudi Aramco are affected, disrupting a key source of energy for Asia — particularly China, which has sent a top envoy to the region.

Shipping broadly has stopped in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil and natural gas traded passes, and up to 30% of world fertilizer exports. Iran didn't need to mine the waterway — its attacks on several ships prompted companies stop sending their vessels through the strait.

Trump has suggested U.S. warships providing escorts to tankers, but that has yet to materialize in a way to restart the traffic.

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Early Tuesday morning, he threatened that if Iran stops the oil through the strait, "they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."

"Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran, however, only doubled down. The Revolutionary Guard warned on Tuesday that it won't allow "a single liter of oil" to leave the Persian Gulf.

What is victory?

For Iran's theocratic rulers, victory means surviving the campaign still in power, no matter the costs to the country and the region.

Trump has been vague and contradictory about his aims in the war. At times, he seems to push for overthrowing Iran's theocracy; other times, he seems to be willing to stop short of that, saying broadly that he wants to ensure Iran is no longer a threat to Israel, the region and the U.S.

That could give him flexibility in declaring that victory has been achieved, especially if real damage starts to show to the U.S. economy.

But if the war stopped right now, both the U.S and Israel would be left with major challenges.

One is Iran's leadership. After an Israeli airstrike killed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the war, Iranian clerics named his 56-year-old son Mojtaba to the position, elevating him to the rank of an ayatollah.

Now Iran's ultimate ruler, the younger Khamenei has long been viewed by analysts as being even more hard-line than his father, with close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Israel already described him as a target in its campaign, while Trump has said he wanted someone else in the role.

Also, Iran still has its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – one reason for the war that Israel and the U.S. have both pointed to. Iran had been enriching up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, likely burying much of the stockpile in the debris. Those sites to this day remain out of the reach of international inspectors.

Mojtaba Khamenei could issue a religious ruling, or fatwa, reversing his father's earlier statements and ordering it to be used to make a weapon. That's something both America and Israel, long believed to be the Mideast's only nuclear-armed state, don't want to see.

EDITOR'S NOTE —Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.

Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Thewar on Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single ques...
Disappointing economic indicators spark stagflation worries | The Excerpt

On the Wednesday, March 11, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Alarm bells on the health of the U.S. economy are ringing. Could a recession be next? USA TODAY Money Reporter Andrea Riquier joins The Excerpt to share her latest insights as to where the economy is headed.

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Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it.This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.

Podcasts:True crime, in-depth interviews and more USA TODAY podcasts right here

Dana Taylor:

Alarm bells on the health of the US economy are ringing. An unexpectedly dismal jobs report, growing unemployment, and the ensuing uncertainty over trade policy piled on top of surging oil prices make the financial outlook particularly bleak this month. Could a recession be next?

Hello, and welcome to USA TODAY's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Wednesday, March 11th, 2026. Joining me to discuss recent economic indicators and what might lie ahead is USA TODAY Money Reporter Andrea Riquier. Andrea, thank you so much for joining me.

Andrea Riquier:

Hey, Dana. Thanks for having me.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, you wrote that economists, analysts, and investors are concerned right now about the possibility of stagflation. What is stagflation and is this something we should be concerned about?

Andrea Riquier:

So stagflation refers to a really uncomfortable moment in the economy where economic growth is stagnant, it's not growing or even receding, and yet inflation is high. Typically, you see inflation higher when growth is strong, but this is uncomfortable because the policy responses are opposite for each one. When you have high inflation, you might want to raise interest rates to keep demand lower, and when you have slow growth, you might want to drop them in order to stimulate demand. So stagflation is a really difficult place for the economy and for the policymakers.

Dana Taylor:

A big concern with American consumers right now is the US-Israel war on Iran. Trump has waffled on his estimation of how long this conflict could last and how much it might cost Americans. Meanwhile, gas prices have been spiking across the country. What can you tell us here?

Andrea Riquier:

So I actually checked the nationwide gas prices just before we started recording. Across the nation, the average is $3.55. Obviously, there's huge local disparities, but it has been suggested that the $3.50 cent mark is roughly where things start to get a little uncomfortable for American consumers. If this is as high as we get and prices fall back from here, maybe it's not so difficult for most American consumers, most households. If it stays elevated like this, things could start to get very uncomfortable for people. The President has said that people should be okay with a little short-term discomfort in order to settle things for the long term, but American households are strapped for enough money to go around to buy everything that they need already. We'll just have to see where things go from here. There could be a quick resolution to this war, or it could drag on.

Dana Taylor:

Let's turn now to the latest jobs report, what does it say? And are you at all surprised?

Andrea Riquier:

It was a surprising jobs report. The labor department said that 92,000 jobs were lost in the month of February. They also downgraded the overall number for the full year, '25. And when you average out the 181,000 jobs that were created throughout 2025, that comes down to about 15,000 jobs a month, which is barely treading water. So take any one month with a grain of salt, but when you look at the longer trend over say 14 months, it does not look good.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, help me put the latest unemployment numbers into perspective here. We saw robust hiring numbers in January, right?

Andrea Riquier:

Right. Again, take any one month with a grain of salt, but when you smooth it all out over a period of time, it looks like a slower growth, slowing economy.

Dana Taylor:

PresidentDonald Trump's signature economic policy centered on his trade policies involving tariffs. Those have recently been thrown out by the Supreme Court. He says that he has other ways to accomplish the same thing, but that it might take a little time to implement. How big of a role is that uncertainty playing here?

Andrea Riquier:

I think it's playing a big role. There's a lot of uncertainty around the tariffs that quite likely makes a lot of businesses a little bit more hesitant about committing to long-term plans like hiring, like capital expenditures, other than the AI infrastructure boom that we've talked about a lot, but it's certainly not helping on the margins. The Supreme Court decision on the tariffs is not the only big headwind out there in the economy. Obviously, the war is another one, and it's just a lot of uncertainty in a midterm election year as well for businesses to process, and it doesn't necessarily look like every business is going to go out and start shedding workers the way they did say in the COVID-19 pandemic, but it doesn't give a lot of comfort for wanting to commit to things long-term either.

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Dana Taylor:

Economists with the Joint Economic Committee have put the cost of tariffs for the average American family at $1,700. Can Americans expect to see this money refunded at any point?

Andrea Riquier:

Yeah, that's the $1,700 question, right? I think we would all like to see some money back. I'm not sure that there's any way to know for sure. We know that a lot of companies have filed lawsuits about this. I think everybody would like a little bit of that money back, but I think that that could drag on for a while and I wouldn't bet on it, let's put it that way.

Dana Taylor:

What are we hearing from the Fed on the state of the economy? I believe their next meeting is next week.

Andrea Riquier:

That's right, the March meeting is next week. A lot of them have come out recently since the start of the Iran War and said exactly what we said at the top of the hour, this really complicates things. Again, a slow growth economy could be stimulated by rate cuts, but higher inflation, which to some extent they're a little more concerned about, would call for rate increases. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed said last Friday that a perfectly acceptable response to where we are right now is just to hold steady, to not do anything. And that's what most investors expect them to do for the foreseeable future.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea, we're also expecting to see a new Fed chair in May. That might change things, right? Tell me about that.

Andrea Riquier:

So first of all, Kevin Warsh still has to be confirmed and that process hasn't started yet, but yes, Donald Trump has nominated him with the belief that Kevin Warsh will be a little bit more amenable to cutting rates than Jay Powell has been. We know that Kevin Warsh, he has served on the Federal Reserve Board before, and we know that he has a pretty good understanding of the lay of the land. And I don't think anybody can expect any particular policymaker to move in one direction or another, given all the uncertainty, all the crosswinds that are going on right now. We'll just have to wait and see.

Dana Taylor:

I know consumer sentiment plays a big role in the economy. What's the news on that front?

Andrea Riquier:

We've talked a lot over the past say year or so about this K-shaped economy where higher income Americans are seeing their fortunes go up and moderate and lower income Americans are seeing things deteriorate. Consumer sentiment has really been in the toilet. There was a little bit of an improvement over the past couple readings, but not much. There's been this real discussion among economists and other analysts about whether Americans are just complaining because the health of the economy actually is pretty strong or what the disconnect is.

I think that seeing some of these official numbers start to reflect more what we're seeing in the sentiment numbers is pretty telling. Seeing, as we talked about earlier, a downgrade in the jobs picture from last year that helps explain some of the negative sentiment that we've been hearing about a lot. One person I talked to for this story about stagflation made the very, very prescient comment that we don't have to have an official diagnosis of stagflation for people to feel like we're really in a slow growth, high price environment, and that's just not fun for anybody.

Dana Taylor:

And finally, Andrea, how are you feeling about using the R word right now, are we teetering on the brink of a recession at this point, or is it too soon to tell?

Andrea Riquier:

I don't think it's too soon to tell. I think that teetering on the brink might be a little bit too dramatic, but I do think that there is reason to watch very closely. Some economists have increased the likelihood of a recession over the next say 12 months, but only to say 25% from 20%. Things would have to go pretty wrong for us to have sustained negative growth, but as we've talked about this entire session, there are a lot of headwinds in the economy right now.

Dana Taylor:

Andrea Riquier is a USA TODAY money reporter. Andrea, thank you so much for sharing your insights here.

Andrea Riquier:

Thanks, Dana. Take care.

Dana Taylor:

Thanks to our Senior Producer Kaely Monahan for her production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com. Thanks for listening, I'm Dana Taylor, I'll be back tomorrow morning with another episode of USA TODAY's The Excerpt.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Low job numbers combined with high inflation sours economists' views | The Excerpt

Disappointing economic indicators spark stagflation worries | The Excerpt

On the Wednesday, March 11, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Alarm bells on the health of the U.S. economy are ringin...

 

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