Ukrainian security services have stepped up drone and sabotage operations against Russian combat aircraft and submarines this month, in what analysts see as one way to combat incessant Russian missile strikes against cities and energy infrastructure.
In the last three weeks, Ukraine has used long-range drones in attacks on Russian airfields in occupied Crimea and southern Russia, taking out several attack aircraft.
On Saturday night, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, two Russian Su-30 fighters were successfully hit in a sabotage operation at Lipetsk airfield in western Russia.
The extent of the damage cannot be independently verified. The Russian military has not publicly commented on the incident.
"Planning the special operation at the airfield near Lipetsk took two weeks," Defense Intelligence said, adding that Russian patrol routines at the base had been monitored and the saboteurs had left the base "unhindered."
Russian bases in Crimea have also come under attack this month. On the same night as the Lipetsk operation, long-range drones struck two Su-27 aircraft at Belbek, according to the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), which supplied imagery of the operation.
"One of the aircraft was on the runway with a full combat load and was ready for combat flight. It was destroyed," the SBU said.
Modernized versions of the Su-27 can carry guided bombs, which have caused extensive devastation in Ukraine.
Belbek was struck twice within days, suggesting Ukraine is finding new ways to evade and destroy Russian air defenses. The SBU claimed that on December 18 it had destroyed radar equipment and an air defense system at the base, leaving it more vulnerable to the subsequent strike.
A MiG-31 aircraft with a full combat load was destroyed in the same raid, according to the SBU.
'Steady attrition'
At the beginning of the month, an attack on another Crimean airfield – at Saky – led analyst David Axe to comment that "Ukrainian missiles and drones are driving the Russian navy's Black Sea fighter and bomber regiment into extinction."
"The steady attrition of Crimea-based Russian warplanes underscores the prowess of Ukraine's deep-strike drone units," noted Axe in his Trench Art blog.
The Saky attack destroyed an Su-24, and the full complement of combat planes at the base is now less than half of what it was in 2022, according to analysts.
At roughly the same time, a Russian MiG-29 was struck at Kacha airfield in Crimea, 20 miles south of Saky, according to theUkrainian Ministry of Defense.in what appears to have been a sabotage operation rather than a drone strike, an indication of intelligence-led planning and execution.
While the Su-30 is still in production, the Su-24, a workhorse of Russian combat aviation, is not.
The Ukrainian security services are not just targeting Russian planes. A sea drone was involved in an attack on a Russian submarine at its base in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk a week ago.
"The submarine suffered critical damage and was effectively put out of action," the SBU claimed.
The Kilo class submarine is one of several used to fire Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. Satellite imagery showed the submarine immobile but still afloat, but it's unclear whether it's operational.
Russia still has hundreds of strike aircraft, some of which are held in storage, but to the Ukrainian security services, every one struck is one fewer firing missiles and dropping bombs on Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. The same applies to its shrinking stock of attack submarines in the Black Sea.
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