Now that Monday has passed and contracts signed during the offseason can be traded, the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market should heat up.
While Giannis himself hasn't demanded a trade yet, there has been plenty of smoke from offseason rumors about a conversation with the New York Knicks to anESPN reporta few weeks ago that Giannis and his agent were having discussions with Milwaukee Bucks management about his future.
Antetokounmpostrained his calf on Dec. 3— the same day as the ESPN report — and is expected to be sidelined for 2-4 weeks. Ahead of the upcoming Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline, there will be plenty of discussions over potential destinations for one of the league's best players.
After all, the Bucks aren't close to contending for a title — Antetokounmpo's stated goal — as they currently have 300-1 odds to win the championship atBetMGM.
If Giannis were actually traded, where could he realistically go? And what would the betting impact be on the 2025-26 NBA title odds for his next team?
To answer that question, I asked Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk and longtime NBA oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, to compare the current and hypothetical future NBA title odds for nine teams that could potentially acquire Giannis.
Sherman believes one team — the San Antonio Spurs — stood out as the best destination for Giannis, both in terms of title odds impact and the potential package Milwaukee could receive in return.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current odds: Even
Odds after a Giannis trade: -150
Sherman:"I don't think they're going to want to [make the deal]. I don't think a team has ever been positioned like they have outside of a couple in history. They just locked up the big three. It feels like you can only go backwards from where you're at, even adding Giannis to it. They do have that treasure trove of picks and flexibility. They could get anyone in the league they wanted. Have the picks and assets to do it, and can outbid anybody. Looking even better than last year's team, I think it's an extreme long shot.
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"I went to even money for the first time this morning. They've weathered injuries, and it's their system, their defense. If they added an MVP candidate in Giannis, I would go to -150. They're already so low that we're not overwhelmed with money at this point. They're one of our better positions."
San Antonio Spurs
Current odds: 18-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: +550
"By far the best situation for both sides for me is San Antonio. The Spurs can give up pieces that are attractive to the Bucks, and there is no state income tax. Even after missing out on Kevin Durant, I thought they could pivot to looking at Giannis. They have so many young players. They're good right now, even without Victor Wembanyama.
"I [was at 35-1 last week], down to 11-2 if San Antonio got Giannis. Slightly ahead of Denver, and I'd move Houston and the Lakers back. The Spurs would be No. 2 in the West. Probably Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, other young pieces and picks [to get it done]. So many pieces to keep or move."
New York Knicks
Current odds: 10-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: +600
"We're sitting at 10-1 right now. They're the starting point in the East. [Karl-Anthony] Towns, OG Anonouby, Josh Hart, and you'd probably have to get a third team involved because they'd need to supply some draft picks. This would be the scenario — he's got this year and next year on his contract. If he's told other teams he won't sign an extension, he could force his way here. Could be like Anthony Davis forcing his way to the Lakers from New Orleans. It would leave you with Jalen Brunson, Miles Bridges, Giannis and scarcity after that. I would go 6-1 on New York."
Houston Rockets
Current odds: 12-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: +600
They're another one behind San Antonio that has pieces and picks to give up. Could have Durant, Alperen Şengün and Giannis. They'd have to start with Amen Thompson and some other young pieces with him to make a deal. Market has 10-1, I'm at 12-1. They'd be close to Denver's number (6-1 to 7-1) with Giannis.
Detroit Pistons
Current odds: 20-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: +800
"Right now, to me, they're an Eastern mini-path of Oklahoma City. They're built with a leader in Cade Cunningham — it would be disruptive and they'd have to give up too much depth to do it. The fact that they're doing well, they're 20-1 to win the title and you look at the makeup of the East. Probably have to put them slightly ahead of the Knicks. I'd go 8-1 on Detroit."
Miami Heat
Current odds: 60-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: 12-1
"The one player they've tried to keep out of trade talks is Kel'el Ware, but if they gave up him, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and some picks, it might be enough. I think with Tyler Herro, Bam Adebadyo and Giannis and some pieces behind that, it would be similar to Atlanta. I'd have them at 12-1 with the coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Still slightly behind the Knicks. I'd go from 60-1 to 12-1 on them."
Atlanta Hawks
Current odds: 50-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: 14-1
"I don't think this would happen in a trade unless it involved Jalen Johnson. The way that he's thrust onto the scene this year, it wouldn't be an option for Atlanta if they didn't base a trade around him. They'd be left with Trae Young, Giannis, Kristaps Porziņģis. It would be the initial perception, after the dust settles, it might be a little higher than that. Just based on the East, I think 14-1."
Golden State Warriors
Current odds: 30-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: 14-1
"Could be Jimmy Butler, and Jonathan Kuminga is a guy they're trying to move. Golden State has some OK depth. But they'd be left left with Steph Curry and an aging Draymond Green. You'd probably deplete some of that depth [to make the deal]. From a fan perspective, it seems like the last shot to go for it. They're sitting at 30-1. It's an upgrade, but I'd have them in the conversation of where the Lakers are (12-1 or 14-1), behind Houston, Denver and OKC. I don't know how much sense that makes."
Toronto Raptors
Current odds: 100-1
Odds after a Giannis trade: 25-1
"They have some nice pieces there. We're sitting at 100-1. They've been struggling lately and showing some weaknesses. I'd go down to like 25-1 initially [after the trade] and it wouldn't surprise me if it floated back up to 30-1 or 40-1. I look at that team, it's the closest to what Milwaukee has now. You'd be left with Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley. It wouldn't be a title-contending team. They'd have to include [Scottie] Barnes in the trade."
